Nothing is eternal in human history. Even those alliances between nations that in a short period of our experience seem eternal, have an expiration date. Will America announce its exit from NATO in a year? Now we have to ask ourselves the problem.
In the latest opinion polls, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in the direct challenge between the two. Within the Republican Party, a month before the primaries begin, the gap with his pursuers (Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis) remains dire. Anything could happen in the next eleven months, including at the judicial level. However, even those who continue to consider a Trump repeat unlikely are forced to examine it as a hypothesis.
This is certainly what governments around the world are doing, each from the perspective of the implications for their own country. Trump’s re-election would be a “black swan” – an event that is statistically extremely unlikely, and would have horrific consequences if it were to occur – but in this day and age, black swans, not rare animals, are accustomed to crowding our world. (From September 11, 2001 Osama bin Laden to October 7, 2023 Hamas, through the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit and Trump 1 in 2016, the pandemic, and Ukraine).
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