The (potential) role of another Turkey – Corriere.it

For a bloodless and helpless Europe, which has no children and does not know how to provide for its own defense, the presence of a free and democratic Turkey as an ally on the eastern borders would be a poignant stroke of luck. Like all flukes, it is unlikely; But it is not impossible. For the first time since winning the October 2002 elections, Recep Tayyip Ardugcan win. Let’s be clear: beating an autocrat in the polls is very, very, very difficult.

Thus, Erdogan is more likely to succeed in the end, legally or not, despite polls showing his defeat. But this time the opposition is serious. The six major parties united in the Nation Alliance and put forward a joint candidate, Kemal KilicdarogLaw, leader of the People’s Republican Party known as Turkish Gandhi, for his ascetic ways and for leading a peaceful march from Ankara to Istanbul, against the arrest of parliamentarians and journalists who break with the regime.

In these twenty years, O UrdugAnd gradually led Türkiye out of the West. Europe has its responsibilities. He deceived the more advanced part of public opinion, that long negotiations were to lead to nothing: Germany would never have admitted Turkey into Europe, would not have to let all the Turks in freely, but also might not see its leadership weakened by such a country the important. Today Turkey will be the most populous country in the Union – more than 85 million people, and growing -, the largest – much larger than Germany and Italy combined – and, after the United Kingdom’s exit, by far the most powerful militarily. Not only that: it has always been a strategic country, a natural bridge between the Mediterranean and Central Asia, between the Middle East and the Black Sea, marred by the war in Ukraine, in which it has played and will play an important role. With Italy, the bonds of hate and love have become secular: today, also thanks to the work of the Embassy, ​​we are the second European trading partner after Germany, with a surplus of more than one billion euros.

Of course, the main responsibility for the crescent eclipse lies with Arduga. And his AKP, hailed as a kind of Islamist DC, has revealed itself A machine of repression that subjugated and suppressed the free press, popular protests, women, writers, and even army generals, which since the era of Mustafa Kemal «Ataturk» was considered a fortress of secularism. In foreign policy, Erdogan negotiated a not very noble exchange with Europe between refugees and money (although it must be remembered that the Turks took in half a million Afghans and four million Syrians). He has come close to Russia and China. intervention in Libya and Syria. He engaged his energies in a long-distance duel with his rival Fethullah “Vito” Gulen, who from his exile in Pennsylvania tried in vain to eliminate him. persecuted the Kurds. The man certainly had great political qualities: flair, charisma, and ruthlessness; And it is still very popular, especially in the vast province of Anatolia. But he thwarted the development potential of his people, and humiliated the nation’s best forces, who now hate him. It is no coincidence that the mayors of the country’s three cities support his opponent: Ankara, the capital; Smyrna, the Greek port that the Apostle John accompanied the Madonna to residence; And Istanbul is the city where Ordu is locatedgHe was born and was his mayor, but he has long since turned his back on him.

Voting takes place on May 14 for the parliamentary elections and in the first round of the presidential elections; Potential runoff after two weeks. ironically, For KılıçdarogIt will be easier for lu to win in the first round; Second, the regime’s mobilization and manipulation force can be fatal. But in recent days, with suspicious suddenness, two more candidates have emerged: Muharram theNCE, also from the Republican Party, which Erdogan had already defeated in 2018, Sinan Wga, who was instead the sacrificial victim in 2013. They reached the necessary 100,000 signatures within a few days; Behind this step someone saw Erdogan’s hand. Both stand no chance of being elected; But it could weaken the needed consensus in Kilicdaroglu to win as early as may 14th.

The opposition leader is also supported by the Kurds, who have given up voicing their candidate. It remains to be seen whether the Kurds hate ErdogAnd, they will rally for another candidate. And if the Kurdish vote is decisive in the second round, more nationalist voters may rally around the autocrat. Also KılıçdarogHe is an Alawite, and belongs to a minority stream of Islam of Shiite origin, which is not liked by the Sunnis, who make up the vast majority in Turkey.

however This time something is moving. It’s not easy for Erdo eithergTo strangle for more than twenty years a people as restless and proud as the Turks. In addition, mismanagement of the earthquake – as pointed out courier Monica Ricci Sargentini loosened her grip on people. The reckless development of large infrastructures and mass digitization was followed by a period of crisis, stagnation and currency devaluation. Anyway, even if he did, urdugIt did not create a sequence. His system is born and dies with him. In the shops of Istanbul, we see not his image, but the image of Ataturk, the father of the Turks, the founder of modern Turkey, who turned the remnants of an empire into a nation and linked it with the West. fate that can be interrupted even for a long time; Not broken forever.