Covid, in some areas, slows down the slope of the positive curve

After passing the peak of the percentage of positive molecular tests, the curve slows down in some areas and shows signs of stagnation in others, while in Calabria it reverses trend and starts growing again. This is indicated by the analyzes of mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani of the Institute for Applications of Calculus “M. Bacon” of the National Research Council (Cnr).

“Almost all regions have passed the peak of the percentage of positive molecular tests, but in some cases the decline is slowing down and becoming linear, as in Tuscany and Campania, or is about to end, thus beginning a phase of stagnation, as in Lazio and in the rallies,” Sebastiani notes. “In Calabria, after a period when growth stopped, we went uphill again,” he adds. According to the expert, “a very likely hypothesis to explain these trends is the increase in tourist flows.”

As for hospitalizations, nationally in regular wards it is expected to peak “within 3-4 weeks in intensive care” within 12 days. The death curve is “in linear growth” and in this regard, Sebastiani notes how much it is. It is important to make the fourth dose of the Covid-19 vaccine for vulnerable groups, especially the elderly.”

At the regional level, a trend similar to the national trend was observed in hospitals, both in regular wards and in intensive care units. “However, there are exceptions such as in Emilia-Romagna and Marche, where – the expert notes – the growth of regular departments continues in my streak, and in Abruzzo where, after a phase of decline, we are again in an initial phase of intensive growth in intensive care “.
For Sebastiani, “If color zone grading was still active, Calabria would be in the yellow zone, where normal wings occupy about 34% and intensive care at about 11%. Fortunately, the first curve has reduced the speed at which it grows, while Growth remains linear for intensive care.”

Here is the percentage of occupancy of the regular divisions in the regions: Umbria (43), Calabria (34), Valle d’Aosta (33), Basilicata (29) Sicily (27), Liguria (26), Friuli Venezia Giulia (23) )) Abruzzo and Marche (21), Bolzano (20), Campania and Emilia-Romagna (19), Trento (18), Lazio and Puglia (17), Tuscany (16), Lombardy (15), Veneto (13), Sardinia. (11), Molise (10), Piedmont (9).