Biden Obama’s plan to push him to withdraw. Funders leave him. Rumors of possible withdrawal on Monday

If it were a test of knowledge of geopolitics, Joe Biden He certainly would have succeeded: he spoke for 59 minutes, moving from Ukraine to the Middle East, from the dangers and threats of Russia and China, to the security of NATO countries. Instead, Thursday night’s press conference was supposed to convince the party, the media and voters that all this talk about his mental health is just a sandstorm that is due to die down.

This did not happen: in fact, many are betting on it. Biden He’s been trying to hold out until the end of last week and some say he might leave on Monday.

This despite the fact that there are two elements to evaluate: on the one hand, that evening at nine o’clock he was interviewed by NBC, and on the other hand, it is the day of the start of the Republican Party convention in Milwaukee, where Donald Trump will announce his vice president. Is it possible that he wants to give the former president the advantage of knowing before making this choice whether he will challenge him or the young African American Kamala Harris?

Marka maneuvers

Meanwhile, the party remains in disarray, not least because of gaffes—Zelensky called Putin and Kamala Harris Trump—and energy that is not what it once was. A group of donors said yesterday they want to freeze $90 million in campaign contributions as long as Biden is the nominee. Still, the number of publicly announced defections from the party has reached 18, a small number to be sure, but many analysts say they are just a small island emerging from a vast underwater mountain. One example? Face to face with the president in the White House, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries would not have asked Biden to support his campaign against Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, rumors are growing about a plan led by Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi to persuade the president to make way for another candidate, most likely Kamala Harris. Other sources say that both Obama and Pelosi have privately expressed doubts about Joe Biden’s ability to win the election scheduled for November. He, as a good stubborn man, has not taken half a step back, and from his point of view this is understandable: he controls almost all the delegates, the US economy is doing well, and the inflation data for June showed a slowdown. Net decline for the first time in two years. He reminded reporters during the press conference that he would only leave if they told him “I have no chance of winning” and so far “no one has told me that” and “there is no sign at the polls.”

But who should tell him? His advisers, the inner circle that – as CNN claimed days ago – protected him, shielded him, kept him away from the world, locked him in the White House and fed him prepared and summarized speeches to be repeated at rallies. For the rest, zero debates, zero interviews, zero press conferences. And all this is having a major impact on the Democratic Party, which is not only confused but also afraid: leaders are trying to figure out whether it is better to risk leaving Biden in the race or to replace him by arriving at the convention with strong internal tensions.

bets

In addition to the four years of the presidency and the dangers threatening American democracy, at stake are the leadership of the Senate, now Democratic, the return of control of the House of Representatives, and finally the unknown Supreme Court. This is because the next president may have the power to appoint two new justices. Democrats know that Trump is likely to push the court even further into the hands of the conservative and religious right. Yesterday, as he promised during his speech at the NATO summit, Biden resumed his campaign, heading to Michigan, one of the swing states, and with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the region in which his re-election will be decided. Michigan itself, which has been in Democratic hands for years, is moving toward the Republican Party and the president is losing the Arab community, one of the largest in America, due to his unclear positions on the war in Gaza. Democrats in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia also fear that Biden’s presence will turn their states from “light blue” (in which Democrats win by narrow margins) into swing states. But there are also other signs that may still be very subtle and could herald an avalanche for Biden. Yesterday, the youth movement against climate change, the Sunrise Movement, asked him to leave: in 2020 it helped him win, and win new voters.

Surveys

Polls raise more doubts: According to NPR and PBS, Biden would win 50% of the vote against Trump’s 48%, surpassing the former president months later. Ron Klain, Biden’s adviser, said yesterday that with Thursday night’s press conference and this new poll “it’s time to stop panicking.” Other polls clearly show that Trump is growing in comparison to Biden, although the two generally appear to be close. Meanwhile, the former president has returned after days of silence: on Thursday he met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a very important choice for understanding the future of the United States under Trump. Moreover, his people continue to talk about Trump, who is increasingly afraid of a possible change of candidate among the Democrats: he wants to challenge Biden and avoid Kamala, with whom, according to the latest polls, it would be difficult to compete. He wins.