Covid, a noticeable increase in infection cases in the governorates

“Covid-19 cases have risen significantly” in Italian provinces compared to the values ​​of the first week of July. This is indicated by the analysis of mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, from the M. Bacon Institute for Applications of Calculus, affiliated with the National Research Council, regarding cases of infection with the SarsCov2 virus in the last seven days until September 6. 2023, the last day the government made it available to the public.

The analysis indicates that “the average weekly infection in the 107 governorates is low and equals about 35 infections per 100,000 people.” However, three groups of provinces can be seen – as the expert notes – depending on the type of trend in the last two weeks until September 6: provinces with a constant average value, those with linear growth and those with accelerating growth.”

Regarding the rapidly growing provinces, three groups of contiguous provinces stand out, with the exception of Verbano-Cosio-Ossola. They are 1) all the provinces of Friuli Venezia Giulia and the province of Belluno; 2) Bergamo, Brescia, Como, Cremona, Lecco, Lodi, Milan, Monza, Brianza, Pavia, Alessandria, Asti, Torino; 3) Caserta, Naples, Salerno, Matera, Isernia.

Sebastiani continues that, apart from a few cases, provinces with stable trends form four groups of contiguous provinces. These are 1) Sassari, Noro; 2) Brindisi, Lecce; 3) Cosenza, Crotone; 4) Trapani, Agrigento, Caltanissetta, Enna, Catania and Ragusa:

Furthermore, two other groups of provinces can be identified which roughly form two groups of contiguous provinces: 1) Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Bologna, Ferrara, and Forlì Cesena; 2) Arezzo, Perugia, Grosseto and Viterbo.

“Six of the seven Veneto provinces appear among the 12 provinces with the highest infection rates,” Sebastiani points out. Moreover, an incidence of more than 50% compared to the previous seven days was observed in Matera, Crotone, Ravenna, Gorizia, Bergamo, Lecco, Verbano-Cosio-Ossola and Belluno.

Below are the weekly infection rate values ​​per 100,000 inhabitants in the 107 Italian provinces, as of September 6:

Oristano, Catanzaro and Lodi (65);

Ravenna and Cremona (60);
Venice, Belluno, Treviso, Vicenza and Avellino (55); Massa Carrara, Ancona, Latina, Pavia, Teramo, Mantua and Chieti (50);
Salerno, Rimini, Verona, Rome, Brescia, La Spezia, Caserta and Siena (45);

Sassari, Pordenone, Pisa, L’Aquila, Lecce, Udine, Naples and Milan (40);

Ferrara, Monza, Brianza, Como, Nuoro, Genoa, Arezzo, Sondrio, Pistoia, Lecco, Terni and Florence (35);

Asti, Savona, Livorno, South Sardinia, Verbano-Cosio-Ossola, Reggio Calabria, Reggio Emilia, Perugia, Lucca, Novara, Grosseto, Frosinone, Alessandria, Piacenza, Ascoli Piceno, Isernia, Trieste, Bologna, Bergamo and Benevento (30);

Vercelli, Fibo Valentia, Macerata, Torino, Gorizia, Bari, Taranto, Foggia, Prato, Pesaro, Urbino, Fermo, Varese, Pescara and Rieti (25);

Forli Cesena, Cosenza, Trento, Parma, Campobasso, Biella, Brindisi and Cuneo (20);

Barletta-Andrea-Trani, Viterbo, Imperia, Aosta and Bolzano (15);

Crotone, Modena, Trapani, Matera and Potenza (10);

Palermo, Ragusa, Messina, Caltanissetta and Agrigento (5);