Biden’s fears of two factors that might detonate the “weapons and ammunition” strategy in Kyiv and unleash a direct war with Russia.

Chief in particular grouchyso the sources White House mood class Joe Biden in the last days. Revelation – straight from The New York Times Based on NBC News – That the US intelligence provided information to Ukrainians To kill Russian generals and drown MoskvaThe President of the United States did not like them. Biden reportedly phoned the Director of National Intelligence, Avril Hainesto the CIA, William Burnsand, finally, to the chief of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austinto express his indignation at news leak. that it inappropriate behaviorIt’s dangerous, said the tenant at the White House, and should stop immediately. Indeed, administration sources always say, Biden would have used, as was his custom, hotter language, but that’s still the meaning.

The angry reaction on the eve of the meeting with the Prime Minister Mario DraghiReveals afraid Biden: to go from one indirect war The United States versus Russia, to one direct war. That’s what Biden tried to avoid from the start, but it’s only getting more difficult. L ‘US intelligence He continues to provide the White House with a fact: The war will be long. The plan A from Russian President Vladimir Putinto reach it Kyivfire the boss Zelensky and install a government friend, I failed. until the plan BWhat do you plan to focus on? Donbass, does not seem very successful. The Russians advance slowly, and territorial conquests follow losses to the newly occupied outposts. The moderate tone Shown by Putin during his victory speech May 9, is the prevailing opinion at these hours in the administration, but it must not be misleading. The Russian president should end this war with something he claims to show general opinion. And for this, the American intelligence services reflect that the war, in all likelihood, will remain a long one.

This basically means two things. On the other hand, Russia is set to be increasingly weakened from a strategic point of view. On the other hand, the risk of a enlargement – widening conflict It becomes a possibility that is not far-fetched. And if the first is the goal that the United States has consciously pursued since the start of the invasion, the second represents a risk Biden is not willing to take. This space between Russian weakness and the breadth of the war is, moreover, the extremely narrow path constantly taken by the American president and which continues to describe his work in part. Biden wants to win this war by proxywithout a American soldier Set foot in the combat zone. wants to filter tyrannical threat Putin without direct US intervention. The goal is ambitious but in reality, it takes very little to blow up plans.

From the White House’s perspective, the strategy chosen so far has been successful. Putin wanted to prevent the expansion of Boybut among the effects of the invasion were the first official steps of Finland And Sweden to enter Atlantic Alliance. After nearly three months of war,Russian economy looks strong suffering and his army has given evidence of a structural weakness. Putin’s international isolation is here for all to see. One of the most important results achieved by management is specifically prevented China Offered military assistance to Russia. Back on February 4, welcoming Putin on the occasion of Olympic Games winterXi Jinping signed a declaration saying that the friendship between Russia and China “has no boundaries”. But there are limits, and they do exist economic interests and commercial. In a phone call at the start of the conflict, Biden warned himself President Xi This support for Russia would jeopardize me business relationships China with its major partners: the United States and Europe. The warning had the intended effect. Aside from some superficial statements and criticism from the United States, Beijing has cautiously stayed out of the fray.

You shouldn’t be deceived by the massive increase in either of them American help To Ukraine, with a final slice of 33 billion dollars In military and economic aid that is added to the other 13.6 billion earmarked for Kyiv A few weeks ago. As US military assistance grew, Biden remained determined to deprive Ukraine military aircraft Which Zelensky has been asking for months, while leaving a US base in Germany, could cause an accident that could escalate into a direct conflict between the United States and Russia. In short, the amount of US military assistance to Ukraine increased above all, in order to help Kyiv’s forces in the supposedly protracted war in the east of the country. But Biden has always remained cautious on that aspect of supplies that could precipitate the situation. Although open Diplomatic support And militarily, despite sending billions of weapons to Ukraine, the Biden administration has been very smart in protecting the American national interest. The US national interest, for now, is non-interference.

On this line, Biden got it wide acclaim at home. more than Republicansand practically all Democratssupports its strategy. L ‘Ukrainian Lending – Tenancy Law, which gives Biden the authority to transfer arms to Ukraine without significant bureaucratic hurdles and legislative controls, was voted on by the Senate unanimously and won only 10 Republican votes against the House of Representatives. Even the left of the Democratic Party, the traditional thorn in the side of the White House, appears on the entire charter in its support for Biden. The only real difference is Bernie’s order SandersAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez And other progressives continue to stand on one side non-military solution conflict. But it is precisely these positions that do not call into question the approach that Biden has chosen so far: weapons and sanctions. Barbara Leethe progressive Democrat who opposed the expansion of the president’s war powers after 9/11, has in recent days flown to Poland He said, “This is a key moment, which will decide whether the world will continue with our world Principles of DemocracyOtherwise, you will come back, which is what Putin is trying to do.”

The strategy also enjoys public support. Survey The Washington Post – ABC News Early May shows that American support for Biden’s handling of the war has increased. It was 33 percent In February, today 42. What the administration is doing is what the American public is asking for: more help for Ukraine (37 percent of those interviewed for the survey think the US is doing little for Kyiv); No direct military intervention (only a fifth of Americans, according to this poll, support direct U.S. military intervention). Episodes like a leak about the role of the CIA in the murder General And in the sinking of the Moskva, they risk it crisis This strategy, because it reveals the degree Involvement America in conflict.

The real problem for Biden lies precisely here. That is, balancing the will repeatedly emphasized to stay away from direct confrontation with Russia, with the reality of military and economic assistance to Ukraine being provided, day after day, on a larger scale. Sharing intelligence with Ukrainians—which is not at all unusual for the United States—is only one aspect of it. Democrats Congress They are considering a new $40 billion aid plan. and only land lease lawwhich is inspired by a scale taken at that time Franklin Delano Roosevelt To quickly get help Great Britain attack him Nazis, is an affirmation of how the United States is increasingly linked to Ukraine’s military fortunes. Indirect war, consisting of sanctions against Russia and abundant military supplies to Ukraine, is still ongoing Guideline for the American administration. But very little is enough – in fact, news leaked from the US administration, Putin’s reaction isolated and besieged, the Ukrainian option to strike targets inside Russian border – To undermine this line. At this point, the shift from indirect to direct warfare could become a very dangerous prospect.